"Fifty-four years after the military coup perpetrated by Hafez al-Assad, 24 years after his son Bashar succeeded him and 13 years after the beginning of the Syrian revolution, the fall of the regime in Damascus is a historic event, both for Syria and for the region as a whole" - Ziad Majed in Le Monde.
In 10 days, the Assadian system, once perceived as unshakable, imploded. A series of military setbacks inflicted by opposition forces in northern and central Syria triggered a wave of popular uprisings in the South and on the outskirts of Damascus. The fear suddenly changed sides. This reversal, both psychologically and on the ground, destabilized entire units of the regime's soldiers, often made up of poorly trained and ill-equipped conscripts, opening the way for its armed opponents to penetrate into the very heart of the capital.
The withdrawal of pro-Iranian Shiite militias and Hezbollah from the Syrian front at the end of 2023, triggered by the war with Israel, combined with the reorientation of Russian military capabilities toward the war in Ukraine since 2022, deprived the Syrian regime of strategic military support. At the same time, Turkey's firm and growing support for the opposition in the country's north, both logistically and in terms of intelligence, considerably strengthened their positions.
While these external dynamics played an important role in the regime's collapse, they explain the situation only partly. Three internal factors complete the picture: the systemic corruption that has plagued the Syrian state apparatus, resulting in the squandering of its resources; the resilience and determination of the opposition forces, made up mainly of young internally displaced people dreaming of liberating their home towns and villages; and, finally, the weakness of the regime's social base, unable to provide significant support in the face of a majority of Syrians who seized this opportunity to hasten the end of an oppressive system.
Dismantling symbols
In the history of nations, the capture of the presidential (or royal) palace is often the event that symbolizes the fall of a regime. In Syria, however, it's the destruction of prisons and of statues of the Assads, father and son, that illustrates the end of an era marked by repression and the crushing of society. The prisons, with their attendant torture and forced disappearances, and the statues, omnipresent in public spaces, embodied both the terror and the domination of the regime.
Since the liberation of major cities such as Aleppo, Hama (martyred since the 1982 massacres), Homs and, finally, Damascus, there have been numerous scenes of the destruction of prison walls and effigies of Assad. These acts reflect a deep-seated desire to turn the page on decades of humiliation. By tearing down these symbols, Syrians are seeking to free themselves from the specter of the slogan Assad ila al-abad ("Assad for eternity"), which portrayed the rulers as immortal, superhuman figures, governing people in a state of perpetual submission, as "subhumans."
This process of dismantling the symbols of absolute power now marks not only a historic break, but also a return to political action. By freeing tens of thousands of prisoners and literally destroying prison walls, as well as trampling on the fallen statues of Hafez and Bashar al-Assad, Syrians are claiming the possibility of rebuilding a collective destiny free from the jailers and the "eyes" of the dictator. In so doing, they are breaking the shackles of the "kingdom of silence," the late dissident Riad Al-Turk's expression for the Syria of the Assads.
Titanic trials
While the fall of the regime opens up the field of possibilities, it also reveals a horizon strewn with major challenges. These include the management of sectarian tensions, in particular the place of the Alawite community in post-Assad Syria; the Kurdish question; and the modalities of governance adapted to a fractured country, potentially federal or decentralized.
Also at stake is the delicate
balance between the religious and the political, in a context where Islamist
forces remain the backbone of the opposition, as well as the reconstruction of
the army and the security services, and their relationship with a society
deeply traumatized by the military. A credible transitional justice system will
also have to be put in place, in a country where the judicial system has long
served the interests of a despotic regime. Finally, economic recovery and the
return of the 14 million refugees and internally displaced persons to regions
ravaged by massive destruction seem more necessary than ever.
Added to these problems is border control, particularly with its large neighbor Turkey, and with Iraq, Lebanon and Israel, the latter occupying the Golan Heights and continuing its military aggression in Syria. Finally, the fight against impunity and the rewriting of historical accounts of the Assad era, undertaken by Syrian researchers dedicated to documenting the memory of the "forgotten," are crucial steps for building a Syrian future.
Will Syria be able to overcome these titanic trials and achieve the long-awaited democratic transition? Uncertainty remains. What is certain, however, is that the fall of the regime is being experienced today with an unparalleled emotional intensity, mixing hope and fear, like a true rebirth. After decades of fear and violence, Syrian society is finally embarking on an ardent quest to regain lost time.
