Rarely do the events of a single year collide with such spectacular intensity as they did by the end of 2024.
In the span of ten days, the Assad
regime in Syria faltered and collapsed, with its president fleeing and leaving
behind a grim legacy of mass graves, an extensive network of prisons and
detention camps, and mercenaries eager to swear allegiance to the highest
bidder.
This upheaval was preceded by a
fragile ceasefire in Lebanon following a ferocious Israeli war that wrought
widespread destruction and claimed thousands of lives. At the same time, the
genocide in Gaza persisted unabated, fueled by either complicity or empty
denunciations, even as emerging mechanisms of international justice began to
target Benjamin Netanyahu’s government.
By Ziad Majed, Published in French in Mediapart, January 1, 2025.
Syria: Opening Up the Field of Possibilities
On December 8, 2024, the Assad
regime in Syria was overthrown by Syrians after thirteen years of revolution,
war, foreign intervention, and profound societal upheaval caused by
killings—leaving over 500,000 dead—forced displacement of millions, and brutal
demographic reshaping. This moment marked the end of a dictatorship that had
ruled with an iron fist for more than half a century.
While the regime's figures of power have disappeared, its scars remain: hundreds of disused torture centers, destroyed monuments and statues that once glorified the dictator, and mass graves containing tens of thousands of bodies. These graves remain largely unexamined amid a chaotic environment revealing the country's lack of resources and expertise. Syria has inherited a devastated economy, fragmented territories, and cities lying in ruins.
The fall of Assad's regime
represents only the first and most significant step in a long and arduous
process. Rebuilding Syria will demand addressing numerous challenges: reducing
sectarian tensions, guaranteeing territorial unity, establishing a political
system that respects pluralism, Kurdish rights, and fundamental freedoms,
securing borders, and building new military and administrative institutions.
Additionally, crafting a fair constitution and establishing an inclusive
electoral framework will be paramount. Transitioning to an independent
judiciary, repealing emergency laws, and pursuing transitional justice to
confront the deep wounds inflicted by Assad’s crimes will also be necessary.
The economic challenges ahead are
equally monumental. Syria must work towards lifting international sanctions,
rebuilding destroyed infrastructure, facilitating the return of some eight
million refugees, forging trade partnerships with neighboring countries such as
Turkey, Iraq, Lebanon, and Jordan, and re-centering the occupied Golan Heights
as a diplomatic priority.
Though the outcome of this process remains uncertain in the short to medium term, one thing is clear: Syrian society has regained its voice and its presence on the political stage, breaking free from a half-century of invisibility, tyranny, and atrocities under the rule of the Assad dynasty.
Lebanon: A Ceasefire Under High Tension
The ceasefire agreement in Lebanon, signed on November 26, brought a temporary halt to Israeli hostilities in the southern and eastern regions of the country, as well as in the southern suburbs of Beirut. It also facilitated the return of hundreds of thousands of internally displaced people, many of whom found their homes reduced to rubble and essential infrastructure destroyed.
This tenuous respite remains precarious, as Israel continues to violate the agreement, particularly in border areas, with little to no reaction from American and French mediators who appear to be waiting for the 60-day deadline outlined in the agreement. This period stipulates the cessation of all military operations and the deployment of Lebanese army troops and UNIFIL peacekeepers to the border.
The 14-month-long war exposed critical miscalculations by Hezbollah and Iran in opening the “Lebanese front” in October 2023. It revealed Hezbollah's vulnerability, particularly following its disastrous decade-long involvement in the Syrian conflict, which exposed it to Israeli, American, Russian, and Syrian intelligence operations. Israeli air superiority further decimated the party’s capabilities, aided by the deployment of artificial intelligence technology to target key figures. These operations resulted in significant setbacks for Hezbollah, including the assassination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah.
In southern Lebanon, many border villages lie razed, and farmland has been scorched by Israeli use of white phosphorus munitions. Lebanon, already economically devastated since its 2019 financial crisis, faces severe challenges in its recovery due to a lack of resources and international aid tied to political conditions. The war exacerbated internal divisions, and reconstruction appears distant in light of regional instability, compounded by the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
However, amidst this bleak outlook, a rare glimmer of hope emerges: the potential revival of Lebanon’s state institutions. The anticipated election of a new president in January 2025, followed by the formation of a government, could pave the way for a national dialogue. This dialogue might address a defense strategy, including issues of weapons and borders, capitalizing on Syria's transformation and reinforcing Lebanon's compliance with UN Resolution 1701 regarding its border with Israel.
Palestine: Genocide Without End
Throughout 2024, Israel's war against Palestinians in Gaza reached unprecedented levels of cruelty, described by experts and organizations as genocide. International bodies such as Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and the International Federation for Human Rights, alongside the United Nations commissions for the Occupied Territories and hundreds of international law experts, now unequivocally use this term to describe the atrocities.
The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. At the same time, the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which is still considering South Africa's genocide allegations against Israel, officially declared Israel's occupation of the Palestinian territories illegal and a "system of Apartheid - a crime against humanity". While these legal advancements signify progress in combating Israeli impunity, they have failed to halt the war machine. Israel continues to benefit from unrelenting U.S. support, with $18 billion in aid in a single year, and the complicit inaction of many European governments and several Arab regimes.
While 2024 stands as a year of apocalyptic devastation for Gaza and its people, the year ahead presents immense challenges for Palestinians in East Jerusalem and the West Bank. They will face renewed annexation attempts under the administration of Donald Trump, whose policies could catalyze Israel's expansionist ambitions.
A Levantine Triad at the Crossroads
The year 2024 ends with three
distinct, yet interconnected, trajectories in Syria, Lebanon, and Palestine.
These dynamics are united by an urgent need to halt genocide and redefine the
region’s political future.
The possible outcomes in Levantine
states will ripple far beyond the Middle East, profoundly shaping global
international relations and the evolution of political and legal norms.
Z.M.
