dimanche 11 janvier 2026

The Iranian Regime at the Crossroads of Internal Revolt and External Threats

For the past two weeks, Iran has been witnessing its broadest popular uprising since the revolt of 2022, which itself had been the largest and most radical since the demonstrations of the Green Movement in 2009.

The current uprising, however, differs markedly from its predecessors—whether in its slogans, its social base, its geographical scope and national implications, or in the manner in which a regime subjected to intense external pressure has responded to it.

Unlike the 2009 uprising, which emerged from the rejection by a largely urban and university-educated generation of electoral fraud in a presidential election they believed could open the door to political change, and unlike the 2022 revolt, which articulated feminist slogans and combined demands for individual freedoms persistently curtailed by the authorities with broader rights-based claims—particularly in regions with Kurdish, Azeri, and Baluchi majorities—the present uprising began with calls by the bazaar (the class of traders rooted in Iran’s historic marketplaces) for a general strike. These calls protested economic deterioration, the collapse of purchasing power, and the devaluation of the national currency. They were subsequently followed by major political mobilizations initiated first by student groups and then by rural popular sectors across most of the country, with the notable exception of areas that had experienced the most extensive protests three years earlier, where demonstrations have so far remained limited, for reasons to be discussed later.