In a world that has been experiencing the rise of ultranationalist, xenophobic and reactionary populism for decades, European democracies are finding it increasingly difficult to stand out.
Witnesses (and sometimes accomplices) of a normalization of the extreme right, in search of transforming Europe into a white fortress rejecting immigration and rejecting miscegenation and diversity, the governments and authorities in Brussels, Rome, Paris, or even Berlin are slow to react. They persist in their obsession with growth and economic exchanges, to the detriment of major political and societal issues. As for the progressive forces, fragmented and incapable of transforming the necessary mobilizations and oppositions into the conquest of power, they are in clear retreat, despite some electoral surges.
The pandemic and its heavy consequences have aggravated this situation and further weakened the confidence of a large part of the citizens in their institutions, elites and representatives, while amplifying social, racial and territorial inequalities.
In addition to all this, since February 2022, there has been the anxiety and anguish caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the outbreak of war on European soil. The demons of a not so distant past seem to be back in many countries.
It is in this tense and oppressive European and international context that the presidential elections were held in France in April, preceded by very violent political and media campaigns and with a record abstention (the highest in fifty years).
Three blocs and a useful vote
The landscape drawn by the results of these elections showed three blocks that dominate the French political spectrum. A bloc of the far right and the nationalist right, with 35% of the votes; a bloc of the center right and the republican right, with 33%; and a bloc of the left, ecologists and the far left, with 32% of the voters.
The omnipresence in recent years of unabashedly racist discourse on television, the irresponsible statements and demagogic formulas repeated by certain ministers or deputies of President Macron's parliamentary majority, the difficulties of daily life during and after the pandemic and the identity-based tensions seeking scapegoats contributed to this result. The far right has made progress in almost all regions and has established itself in the long term on the French political scene as the leading force of contestation.
The re-elected president can thank a "republican front" (made up mainly of left-wing voters) that mobilized in the second round to block Mrs. Le Pen. The useful vote of this front offered him victory, but did not keep him from the edge of the abyss. For if Mr. Macron does not change his economic priorities and choices during his second term, if he does not change the highly centralized (and widely contested) mode of governance, his new five-year term will undoubtedly experience a succession of tensions and turbulence. The unprecedented combination of external crises (war, economic disruption, climate catastrophe) and internal crises (purchasing power, jobs, pensions, health care system, etc.) will put him under permanent pressure. Its salvation can therefore only come from a revitalization of democratic life, a serious reform of institutions and an improvement in the living conditions of the working and middle classes (through a tax system that no longer offers "gifts" to the wealthy). But this salvation will not come either, without a firm fight against the various forms of racism and discrimination that pollute public life and debate in France.
The next parliamentary elections, scheduled for June 2022, will be a test for the president. He has yet to win a large majority in the National Assembly, and the struggle between the three blocs of the far right, the right and center right, and the left will undoubtedly be fierce.
France is thus entering a new phase in its history, perhaps that of the transition to a sixth republic, because the fifth is out of breath. It was narrowly saved in 2022 by a vote rejecting the extreme right. But there is no certainty, if nothing is done, that this vote will be repeated, or even sufficient, in 2027...
Ziad Majed
Article
originally published in French in L’Orient Littéraire
