Ziad Majed's responses to Dalal Saoud's questions for the United Press International
- After 10 years of a destructive civil war, the country is in ruins and in danger of collapse. Assad survived the war and remained in power despite committing war crimes, grave human rights violations and the use of internationally banned weapons. But is he really in control of the country since he lost most of his power to his Russian and Iranian allies who came to his rescue and backed him in the battlefield ?
Assad had,
like his father before him, absolute power in Syria in a totalitarian system that
he led until 2011. He has been since confronting a popular revolution and
declaring a full-scale war on large categories of the Syrian society. If it is
true ten years later that he survived the revolution and the war and that he is
still in the presidential palace in Damascus, it is also true that this was
mainly due to his Iranian ally that mobilized resources, troops and militias
from Iraq, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Afghanistan, and especially due to the
Russian military intervention in 2015 that radically modified the configuration
and the “physiognomy” of the conflict.
Assad’s
absolute power was however never restored. The 65% of the Syrian territory that
he officially “controls” is in fact under Russian and Iranian occupation. The
same applies to most of the Syrian borders. Turkish and US troops are deployed
in the remaining 35% in support for the first of opposition groups and for the
latter of Kurdish militias (who fought ISIS). Israel continues of course to occupy
the Golan Heights and to bomb Hezbollah’s fighters close to the Lebanese
borders. And escalation as well as negotiation and compromises are decided by
these regional and international actors, with Russia, Iran and Turkey being the
most decisive and influential among them, while Assad (like the Syrian
opposition) has no say in that. What remains of the sovereignty of his State is
its authority inside Syria’s large prison network where tens of thousands of
political detainees are held in horrifying conditions.
- Is there
any solution in sight for the Syria crisis, any prospect of a negotiated
settlement with Assad still not willing to share power with the opposition or
accept any fundamental reforms? Or any such solution should be part of a
comprehensive settlement in the region?
I cannot
see any possible solution in the near future. On the one hand because
international and regional negotiations are not progressing, and all UN
initiatives have failed. And on the other because no transition can be expected
with Assad remaining in power. Russia and Iran know that but won’t sacrifice him
as long as they don’t get (each) what they want: Moscou, a recognition of its
role as a “mandatory” power in Syria fully in charge of the political process
and the supervision of the reconstruction; Teheran as the regional (nuclear)
“superpower” whose roles are accepted in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, and who is
not threatened anymore by economic sanctions nor by Israeli warnings and attacks.
Neither the US nor Turkey nor
other actors can accept that for the time being.
- Do you think there will be a change in US-Syria policy under the Biden Administration, taking into consideration the geo-political ambitions of the regional and global powers (including Russia, Iran & Turkey) involved ?
There might be minor changes, not due to a new US-Syria policy, but rather because negotiations are expected to take place between Washington and Teheran over the nuclear issue, and over military (ballistic missiles), economic and regional topics. Other negotiations might happen as well between Washington and Ankara over the Kurdish question, bilateral relations and NATO affairs. It is early however to say whether contacts with Moscow will be initiated soon, as the Biden administrations made many strong statements against Russian policies. So, a status quo or a “low intensity violent conflict” is expected to last for some time before new international and regional dynamics emerge.
- While
Assad is trying to consolidate his hold on power, he is now facing an even
bigger threat: his country's economic and financial collapse. Is Syria on the
verge of state collapse especially that Assad has no solution in this regard?
It is
certain that the Syrian economy is collapsing due to the impact of war,
destructions, war economy, debts, corruption, militia rule and mismanagement of
more and more limited resources. And this is not going to change, especially
that Lebanon which served for some time as a “backyard” for many businessmen
close to the Assad regime has collapsed itself. But one should keep in mind
that with regimes like the Syrian one, the economic situation might not always
be a game changer. They can keep blaming US and European sanctions for the
disaster they created, rely on their repressive machine to crack-down on any
sign of anger or disenchantment among some sectors of the society, allow mafia
and clientelist networks to keep extorting goods, property, and money to secure
their loyalty, and wait until new external developments help them managing
their crises.
-What is
the price he has to pay for the international community (and Arab Gulf
countries) accept to provide much needed assistance and help with Syria's
reconstruction, knowing that neither Iran nor Russia are willing or have the
means to do that?
I do not
think that the US and Europe will provide assistance to the Syrian state as
long as there is no political solution and there are no guarantees that
refugees could return. In addition, the pandemic and the post pandemic economic
conditions in the US, Europe and the world in general are not going to
encourage states and businesses to invest or to finance a reconstruction in a
volatile and unstable situation, like the Syrian one, under Russia and Iran’s
supervision. Another factor making it difficult, if not impossible, to help
with this reconstruction is the set of legal procedures and measures related to
sanctions against the Syrian regime (especially the Caesar Act), and the series
of judicial cases in European tribunals accusing the regime of committing
crimes against humanity.
As for the
Gulf countries, I believe Qatar cooperates closely with Turkey and will not
move unilaterally on Syria. Saudi Arabia wants Assad to take his distance from
Iran, something that he cannot commit to. And the United Arab Emirates and
Bahrain that both reopened their embassies in Damascus, they do have for now
other priorities in the region and what holds them from adding Syria to those
priorities are mainly fears from US reactions.
Z.M.
