dimanche 14 mars 2021

What next for Assad, Syria?

 Ziad Majed's responses to Dalal Saoud's questions for the United Press International

- After 10 years of a destructive civil war, the country is in ruins and in danger of collapse. Assad survived the war and remained in power despite committing war crimes, grave human rights violations and the use of internationally banned weapons. But is he really in control of the country since he lost most of his power to his Russian and Iranian allies who came to his rescue and backed him in the battlefield ?

Assad had, like his father before him, absolute power in Syria in a totalitarian system that he led until 2011. He has been since confronting a popular revolution and declaring a full-scale war on large categories of the Syrian society. If it is true ten years later that he survived the revolution and the war and that he is still in the presidential palace in Damascus, it is also true that this was mainly due to his Iranian ally that mobilized resources, troops and militias from Iraq, Lebanon (Hezbollah), and Afghanistan, and especially due to the Russian military intervention in 2015 that radically modified the configuration and the “physiognomy” of the conflict.

Assad’s absolute power was however never restored. The 65% of the Syrian territory that he officially “controls” is in fact under Russian and Iranian occupation. The same applies to most of the Syrian borders. Turkish and US troops are deployed in the remaining 35% in support for the first of opposition groups and for the latter of Kurdish militias (who fought ISIS). Israel continues of course to occupy the Golan Heights and to bomb Hezbollah’s fighters close to the Lebanese borders. And escalation as well as negotiation and compromises are decided by these regional and international actors, with Russia, Iran and Turkey being the most decisive and influential among them, while Assad (like the Syrian opposition) has no say in that. What remains of the sovereignty of his State is its authority inside Syria’s large prison network where tens of thousands of political detainees are held in horrifying conditions.

- Is there any solution in sight for the Syria crisis, any prospect of a negotiated settlement with Assad still not willing to share power with the opposition or accept any fundamental reforms? Or any such solution should be part of a comprehensive settlement in the region? 

I cannot see any possible solution in the near future. On the one hand because international and regional negotiations are not progressing, and all UN initiatives have failed. And on the other because no transition can be expected with Assad remaining in power. Russia and Iran know that but won’t sacrifice him as long as they don’t get (each) what they want: Moscou, a recognition of its role as a “mandatory” power in Syria fully in charge of the political process and the supervision of the reconstruction; Teheran as the regional (nuclear) “superpower” whose roles are accepted in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq, and who is not threatened anymore by economic sanctions nor by Israeli warnings and attacks. Neither the US nor Turkey nor other actors can accept that for the time being. 

- Do you think there will be a change in US-Syria policy under the Biden Administration, taking into consideration the geo-political ambitions of the regional and global powers (including Russia, Iran & Turkey) involved ? 

There might be minor changes, not due to a new US-Syria policy, but rather because negotiations are expected to take place between Washington and Teheran over the nuclear issue, and over military (ballistic missiles), economic and regional topics. Other negotiations might happen as well between Washington and Ankara over the Kurdish question, bilateral relations and NATO affairs. It is early however to say whether contacts with Moscow will be initiated soon, as the Biden administrations made many strong statements against Russian policies. So, a status quo or a “low intensity violent conflict” is expected to last for some time before new international and regional dynamics emerge.

- While Assad is trying to consolidate his hold on power, he is now facing an even bigger threat: his country's economic and financial collapse. Is Syria on the verge of state collapse especially that Assad has no solution in this regard? 

It is certain that the Syrian economy is collapsing due to the impact of war, destructions, war economy, debts, corruption, militia rule and mismanagement of more and more limited resources. And this is not going to change, especially that Lebanon which served for some time as a “backyard” for many businessmen close to the Assad regime has collapsed itself. But one should keep in mind that with regimes like the Syrian one, the economic situation might not always be a game changer. They can keep blaming US and European sanctions for the disaster they created, rely on their repressive machine to crack-down on any sign of anger or disenchantment among some sectors of the society, allow mafia and clientelist networks to keep extorting goods, property, and money to secure their loyalty, and wait until new external developments help them managing their crises.

-What is the price he has to pay for the international community (and Arab Gulf countries) accept to provide much needed assistance and help with Syria's reconstruction, knowing that neither Iran nor Russia are willing or have the means to do that?  

I do not think that the US and Europe will provide assistance to the Syrian state as long as there is no political solution and there are no guarantees that refugees could return. In addition, the pandemic and the post pandemic economic conditions in the US, Europe and the world in general are not going to encourage states and businesses to invest or to finance a reconstruction in a volatile and unstable situation, like the Syrian one, under Russia and Iran’s supervision. Another factor making it difficult, if not impossible, to help with this reconstruction is the set of legal procedures and measures related to sanctions against the Syrian regime (especially the Caesar Act), and the series of judicial cases in European tribunals accusing the regime of committing crimes against humanity.

As for the Gulf countries, I believe Qatar cooperates closely with Turkey and will not move unilaterally on Syria. Saudi Arabia wants Assad to take his distance from Iran, something that he cannot commit to. And the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain that both reopened their embassies in Damascus, they do have for now other priorities in the region and what holds them from adding Syria to those priorities are mainly fears from US reactions.

Z.M.